Donald Trump Retakes Slim Lead in Arizona Polling Average

Donald Trump has retaken the lead in Arizona for the first time in almost a month, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
The polling tracker shows Trump is currently 0.4 point ahead of rival Kamala Harris in the battleground state, on 45.7 percent to Harris’ 45.3 percent. It’s the first time Trump has been in the lead in the state since August 9, according to the poll tracker.
It comes as the five most recent polls in the state showed the two either tied or Trump ahead. A CNN poll conducted between August 23 and 29 showed Trump 5 points ahead among 682 likely voters. It had a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.
Meanwhile, polls conducted by Redfield and Wilton Strategies and Emerson College between August 25 and 28 found Trump had a 1 point and 4 point lead, respectively. His 1 point lead was within the margin of error, while his 4 point lead was outside it. Polls by Morning Consult and InsiderAdvantage found the two candidates were tied.
Before Harris became the Democratic nominee for president, polls consistently showed that Trump had the lead over Biden in Arizona. However, they had since shown that Harris was in the lead by up to 5 points.
But recent polls have suggested that Harris may have lost her lead in Arizona. Pollster Nate Silver’s model shows that Harris is only predicted to win in two battleground states – Michigan and Wisconsin, with Trump currently 1 point ahead in Arizona, where the Republicans have gained 2.4 points in the past week. Harris was previously ahead in Arizona, according to Silver’s model.
Meanwhile, the RealClearPolitics poll tracker also shows that Trump is 1 point ahead in the state. Trump’s lead stood at 5.8 points on the day of Biden’s withdrawal from the race, according to RealClearPolitics, and Nate Silver’s model showed Trump was leading by 7 points in the state on the day of Biden’s withdrawal.
Despite the impact Harris has had on the polls, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast still shows that Trump is predicted to win the state, by a margin of 0.6 points.
Biden took Arizona in 2020 after Trump won the state in 2016.
Newsweek has contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns via email for comment.
Nationally, Harris is leading Trump by 3.1 points, according to FiveThirtyEight.
However, in a post on the ActiVote website, pollster Victor Allis wrote that Harris’ lead over Donald Trump in the polls is being “steadily cut.”
“Harris’ poll numbers improved steadily for about three-four weeks after Biden dropped out, followed by a period of two weeks where it hovered around a 5-point lead. In the past five days that 5-point lead has been steadily cut to just under 2 percent,” he wrote.
It comes amid an expected bump in the polls of at least 2 points for Harris following the DNC. However, according to Silver, her lead has only increased by 1.2 points nationally.
Silver’s forecast model on Friday showed Trump leading Harris in the Electoral College for the first time since the beginning of August. His model gave Trump a 55 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, 11 points higher than Harris’s 44 percent.
Meanwhile, six bookmakers now put Trump ahead of Harris, including Sky Bet, Paddy Power, William Hill, 888sport, Betfair and Unibet, though the two presidential candidates were tied with Bet365 and Ladbrokes.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris is still in the lead in five of the seven battleground states and she is forecast to win in four of them.
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